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Onderwerp: COVID-19 (aka nCoV) |
496 antwoorden
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Quote ( Guido Simonetta @ March 20th 2020,02:55:47 ) Argentina applies compulsory social isolation. Minimal movement on the streets they were smart, they changed their address to the beach
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#302 geplaatst Maa 20 2020, 09:18:39 (laatst aangepast Maa 20 2020, 09:18:57 door Harsh Sheth)
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Quote ( Upeo Unaozidi @ March 14th 2020,23:04:41 ) In New York city they tested 700 people so far, 524 of them tested positive on covid-19.
Though your numbers may have been off, the observation was absolutely right, enough people were not being tested in New York state. The total number of cases in New York state is now over 5700 and the number for New York city is approaching 4000. 2300 cases were added in New York state in the last day itself. Aahh, things were so much better just 5 days ago...
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Quote ( Harsh Sheth @ March 20th 2020,09:18:39 ) Aahh, things were so much better just 5 days ago...
or 5 days ago things weren't any different, just the amount of testing and thus confirmed cases were lower. the amount of actual cases might have already been the same
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Portugal just annouces that we have now 1020 infected persons. 6 deaths.
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Quote ( Bruno Machado @ March 20th 2020,13:47:57 ) Portugal just annouces that we have now 1020 infected persons. 6 deaths.
Shit, i feared we would be over 1000 by the end of the week
Not everyone is doing what needs to be done here. Im doing my part and i've stayed home since March 13th now but not everyone is commiting to stop the disease from spreading.
And so far the disease is being reported in the main urban centers, imagine when it hits less developed cities where medical care is not as good as in Porto or Lisbon, this is far from over unfortunately.
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Quote ( Ivan Silva @ March 20th 2020,14:13:47 ) Quote ( Bruno Machado @ March 20th 2020,13:47:57 )
Portugal just annouces that we have now 1020 infected persons. 6 deaths.
Shit, i feared we would be over 1000 by the end of the week
Not everyone is doing what needs to be done here. Im doing my part and i've stayed home since March 13th now but not everyone is commiting to stop the disease from spreading.
And so far the disease is being reported in the main urban centers, imagine when it hits less developed cities where medical care is not as good as in Porto or Lisbon, this is far from over unfortunately.
This is growing and its become very dangerous.
I still have to work as the hotels are still not closed. But the rest of the time I'm also at home without any contact outside.
Still, when I leave my work and driving home, there are a lot of persons around even walking, cycling or running.
My biggest danger is the spread for the interior places such as Alentejo or Trás-os-Montes :|
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Quote ( Bruno Machado @ March 20th 2020,14:21:42 ) Still, when I leave my work and driving home, there are a lot of persons around even walking, cycling or running.
This is highly encouraged as long as you don't do it in a group! Activity keeps the body healthy, and you won't spread or catch the virus just from going outside to get fresh air. You should avoid contact with other people, but it's perfectly fine to go outside on your own as long as you keep distance to others.
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That is so normal because of the Sun and vitamin D. Every day I am outside in parks. Not sitting in caffee drinkibg coffiee in group. But I am not wearng mask and gloves. I don't have it either. Risk is if you are in group and if you are over 65 years old. But here is police time forbiddent walking outside from 20h till 05h every day. Spanish virus kiled 50.000.000 people in 1918. think about that. This is nothing comparing that.
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Quote ( Jasper Coosemans @ March 20th 2020,14:32:04 ) This is highly encouraged as long as you don't do it in a group! Activity keeps the body healthy, and you wont spread or catch the virus just from going outside to get fresh air. You should avoid contact with other people, but it's perfectly fine to go outside on your own as long as you keep distance to others.
Virus stays in surface of things for time, even it keeps alive in the air... Even though its very difficult to get infected only for that... but if somebody with virus coughes a lot in a space and some minutes later you walk by, you could get infected.
We need to be more careful than that... this is why people are still getting infected because people are being careless.
Im looking at countries like portugal with "only" 1k infected, or UK with already 3k where theyre not even in quarentine yet ,forcing all people to stay home.
We started quarantine here in Spain with 3K infected... and it was already very late.
Countries dont understand yet that when first cases are known they should be everybody quarantined like here or Italy to avoid spreading the virus
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The 3 possible scenarios that keep popping up all don't really work unless something changes on the science side of things.
1) let it spread. Well we all know it will infect at rates that healthcare can't keep up with. Numbers I've read for the Netherlands talk about at least 20 times the available capacity in the peak that we're all trying to flatten
2) total lockdown. Yes, it will stop the spread as much as possible, but then? Vaccines are not going to be done in 2020. So what, we keep a complete lockdown for a year? I don't see that as a possibility. People will start doing even more stupid stuff as they already did. And when lockdown is broken, the same shit starts all over again.
3) controlled spread. We can't spread it fast enough to build herd immunity in a couple of months, while ALSO keeping the peak low enough for healthcare to be able to help the weak. The numbers have been run by lots of different people and the middle ground just isn't a solution here.
The tools we really need in this time are
a) fast testing to cover most of the population quickly, to gain insight in the actual spread
b) tailored plans to protect specific weak groups, based on complete spread data
Improving testing efficiency to make large scale testing possible is the most important thing that could be done in the short term.
IF, and only if, that can be done, we could actually have some sort of restart of economy and social life, getting infection rates up among non risk groups to accelerate the road to herd immunity. But we'd need to have a really good view and grip on the spread if we can even dream to achieve this.
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Argentine government declared total quarantine yesterday. They are clearly lying or not testing people, as the number of infected and deaths declared is lower then neightbour countries with half (chile) or 10% (Uruguay) of the population.
Basically WE DO NOT KNOW SH*T, for sure.
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Quote ( Thijs Rieken @ March 20th 2020,15:00:07 ) 2) total lockdown. Yes, it will stop the spread as much as possible, but then? Vaccines are not going to be done in 2020. So what, we keep a complete lockdown for a year? I don't see that as a possibility.
Why not. AS far as I understand it, the virus doesn't live more than 2-10 days (depending on surface and conditions) without a living host. Isolate all infected and sanitize all infected areas.
The trouble there is that everyone would have to be tested (some more than once) and currently there isn't the resources to do that world wide, or even country wide.
So... IF it was possible to test and isolate, it might be possible to get rid of this in (let's say) in matter of weeks.
That being said:
Aggressive testing helps Italian town cut new coronavirus cases to zero
‘Test, test, test’
The success underscores the importance of testing and isolating otherwise healthy carriers
Through testing and retesting of all 3,300 inhabitants of the town of Vò, near Venice, regardless of whether they were exhibiting symptoms, and rigorous quarantining of their contacts once infection was confirmed, health authorities have been able to completely stop the spread of the illness there.
sources here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/aggressive-testing-hel...
https://www.livescience.com/small-italian-town-cuts-coronavi...
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TEST TEST TEST! It's like software development :P
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Quote ( Thijs Rieken @ March 20th 2020,15:00:07 ) getting infection rates up among non risk groups to accelerate the road to herd immunity
Even if this were possible without also infecting at risk groups I think it'd still overwhelm healthcare resources because it's a brutal enough illness for many at lower risk too.
The only scenario I see working is we rush the vaccine and cut lots of corners. Assuming the usual methods will actually work (there's no reason to think they won't, it's an enveloped virus and the SARS-1 research didn't uncover any insurmountable problems) then most of the cautious timescales being thrown about are for careful testing of the vaccine. It comes down to how safe and effective we want to be sure it is before beginning to roll it out when the alternative is more months of global shutdown. Seasonal flu vaccines take less than 6 months to produce so that sort of timescale is viable with some luck and determination.
Lots of testing definitely helps suppress in the meantime of course, and will help with targetting the early waves of vaccination.
I've found that one not always super up-to-date, a couple more to check:
https://www.bing.com/covid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw <-- strangely calming end-of-world muzak :D
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Personally not following it as closely as market stock prices, but find it interesting to check daily statistics, which I'm missing in your links, but thanks ;)
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Quote ( Roland Postle @ March 20th 2020,17:08:03 ) The only scenario I see working is we rush the vaccine and cut lots of corners. Assuming the usual methods will actually work (there's no reason to think they won't, it's an enveloped virus and the SARS-1 research didn't uncover any insurmountable problems) then most of the cautious timescales being thrown about are for careful testing of the vaccine. It comes down to how safe and effective we want to be sure it is before beginning to roll it out when the alternative is more months of global shutdown. Seasonal flu vaccines take less than 6 months to produce so that sort of timescale is viable with some luck and determination.
Not so easy! New vaccines need safety testing including that not make the infection even worst o lower the immune response. Testing is there not only in order to test efficiency but also to test collateral effects. So, 12 to 18 months to develop an effective and safe vaccine will be a very remarkable achievement. You have to consider that the 6 months of development for influenza vaccines are the time needed to 1) select the circulating strains and 2) put this strains in production. Not testing because we known how to develop safe vaccines to influenza.
At present, there are not vaccines to any SARS or beta-coronaviruses. In addition, all the infection mechanisms of SARS viruses, including the first SARS virus from 2002, are not fully understood.
My bets are on antiviral drugs. Maybe (a big 'maybe' here) some antiviral drug used to treat HIV or another viral infections works against Covid19. If it is the case, we got a jackpot because we have done the testing and known how to produce.
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Is everyone more focused on the 4% death rate or the 36% recovery rate? Asking for a friend.
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Quote ( Daniel Mason @ March 20th 2020,18:15:01 ) Is everyone more focused on the 4% death rate or the 36% recovery rate? Asking for a friend.
Now I'm focused on what happens to the other 60%.
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Quote ( Max Watson @ March 20th 2020,18:24:46 ) Now I'm focused on what happens to the other 60%.
Staying ill forever?
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Quote ( Daniel Mason @ March 20th 2020,18:15:01 ) Is everyone more focused on the 4% death rate or the 36% recovery rate? Asking for a friend.
Not everyone... and btw:
Cov Deaths: 11,179
Deaths caused by cancer this year: 1,795,500
The data on cancer mortality displayed on Worldometer is based on the latest statistics published by the World Health Organization (WHO)
Cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide,
There's no vaccination for cancer either...
but which gets more headlines
Check out this one:
https://www.who.int/images/default-source/infographics/cance...
20-80% mortality rate... quite a bit higher than Cov
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Quote ( Daniel Mason @ March 20th 2020,18:15:01 ) Is everyone more focused on the 4% death rate or the 36% recovery rate? Asking for a friend.
4% death rate is most probably overestimated by 10 times at least.
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Quote ( Gastón Paris @ March 20th 2020,17:56:04 ) Quote ( Roland Postle @ March 20th 2020,17:08:03 )
At present, there are not vaccines to any SARS or beta-coronaviruses. In addition, all the infection mechanisms of SARS viruses, including the first SARS virus from 2002, are not fully understood.
My bets are on antiviral drugs. Maybe (a big 'maybe' here) some antiviral drug used to treat HIV or another viral infections works against Covid19. If it is the case, we got a jackpot because we have done the testing and known how to produce.
MIT researchers, led by Todd Rider, were promisingly developing a drug called DRACO, capable of acting against something common to all viruses that attack human cells: a double strand of RNA. A drug capable of identifying infected cells and killing them, ending the infection. The tests against 15 types of viruses were excellent. The drug would be able to eliminate viruses like Influenza, HIV, etc. However, more funding was lacking to speed up research.
Search for "DRACO virus" on Google and you will see that it is something really vital for humanity.
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Quote ( Mikko Heikkinen @ March 20th 2020,18:31:29 ) Quote ( Daniel Mason @ March 20th 2020,18:15:01 )
Is everyone more focused on the 4% death rate or the 36% recovery rate? Asking for a friend.
Not everyone... and btw:
Cov Deaths: 11,179
Deaths caused by cancer this year: 1,795,500
The data on cancer mortality displayed on Worldometer is based on the latest statistics published by the World Health Organization (WHO)
Cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide,
There's no vaccination for cancer either...
but which gets more headlines
Check out this one:
https://www.who.int/images/default-source/infographics/cance...
20-80% mortality rate... quite a bit higher than Cov
I find such comparisons dumb, sorry to say it. We're talking about a very infectious virus which, aside from fatalities, causes a lot of people to get really properly sick for 2 weeks. Why try to compare with something like cancer that is not even infectious? The economic effects of novel corona are way way larger.
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Quote ( Alessandro Casagrande @ March 20th 2020,18:37:52 ) Quote ( Daniel Mason @ March 20th 2020,18:15:01 )
Is everyone more focused on the 4% death rate or the 36% recovery rate? Asking for a friend.
4% death rate is most probably overestimated by 10 times at least.
Even if it's 0.1%, that would mean 17.000 deaths in the Netherlands, on our puny 17 million inhabitants. If we were to allow this to happen in a matter of weeks we couldn't possibly handle it.
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clubs,pubs,gyms,restuarants,cafes,schools, all shut as from tonight,, so dont go down the pub coz u wont get served, lol
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Quote ( Jasper Coosemans @ March 20th 2020,18:46:03 ) I find such comparisons dumb, sorry to say it. We're talking about a very infectious virus which, aside from fatalities, causes a lot of people to get really properly sick for 2 weeks.
Yeah, in that sense it can be dumb to compare a virus which makes a person properly sick for 2 weeks with a decease which makes a person properly sick for several months if not years.
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Quote ( Mikko Heikkinen @ March 20th 2020,18:31:29 ) Quote ( Daniel Mason @ March 20th 2020,18:15:01 )
There's no vaccination for cancer either...
Pleased don't apprehend cancer as one single illness like Covid 19. I cannot understand, why a comparison of deaths due to a malfunction in cells and Corona Virus should make sense. If I have cancer, you won't get cancer.
The quote ist necessary because there are vaccines for cancer - not in general, but in certain cases it is possible to prevent cancer: Gardasil (HPV)
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