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Topic: Amateur - 92 |
546 replies
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Congrats Luis that was a perfect race for you and fully deserved! I agree you've been very unlucky with certain races this season.
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Hey guys I planned to smoke as I was trying to stay out of the points as I said I would and I think I pulled it off just about right. I was smoking for a while there and was sure I would lose those positions too. I thought a smoking car would be easy to overtake but....
Well on to the next race. I was going to make a write up of how the best strategies would go with this one and put in the reasons why but I think I would put you all to sleep even though I think I could give a good reason why one stop hards will likely be the strategy to beat. It is slightly conservative but has a big upside if the rains start at all and does not give up much if anything if there is no rain.
Keep in mind the TCD for this race being pretty small at 0.144 for expected race temps. The in-out lanes are very long at 24.5 so avoiding pits by using harder tires is very important. I have locked out any chance of changing tires due to rain and I will actually benefit if rain does happen but lasts for anything under about 16 laps.
At this track the loss of time due to wrong tires is about 6.4 seconds per lap (6.4s for dry tires on wet track but 2.8s for rain tires on dry track) but a pit in andthen out for weather changes will be a minimum of 2*[(23 (pit)+24.5)] = 95 seconds and because weather pits are usually longer than dry pits you can call that 100s or more. Even if I lose 6.4s per lap by having dry tires in the rain, I can in theory last 100/6.4 = 15.6 laps before there is any penalty for not switching to rain tires. A dry tire on rain is likely to have more driver mistakes so call that 14 laps to be fair. That is 2/3 of the rain quarter, so only rain starting right away and lasting most of the way hurts the person who locks out the rain switch.
The advantage of hard tires is you do not really give up much speed over a softer tires (TCD = 0.144). Worst case 69*0.144 = 9.9 seconds but hard tires pretty much guarantee you will not pit before the rain. If you qualify high the benefit is even more because you will likely block a lot of the people that the 9.9 seconds will benefit if they are further back in the pack.
I intend to smoke again near the end of the race so get your boosts set for then and you will likely pass me more easily. There is a 1% chance I will make the race but I think I will go down with 6-9 laps to go like last time.
I'm looking for Luis, csabe, kerian, james and maybe a few others to kick my butt this race. I need you guys to get ahead of me so I can stop killing my races. This just seems wrong on some level. I will be cheering for you guys.
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well not how I planned it :) I have my risks for malfunctioning car set higher than the 0CT so my tires wore out and I will do a second pit late in the race. This is going to really hammer the Motivation. I did not have any parts greater than 80% so I am going to be hammered here. WIth the higher Malf. risks my car parts are going to take a drastic beating even though I am going to finish out at 35th is my guess. I will also run out of energy so that will hammer me as well.
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This one really hurt. Some was my own mistake. I had set the malfunctioning at 95 back when I was in elite and never changed it. So this time although I was running on 0CT, once I started smoking all my car wear went to 95CT wear and that has taken out the first 6 parts instead of having one more race with them. After the next race I have to replace everything else other than the electronics. Probably a 35M overhaul and my own fault. I lost -50 MOT in this race alone which also hurt a lot.
I have been asked to not post any strategies before the quals is closed so no one can take advantage of them. Sorry to anyone that felt hurt by this and thank you for the person who reminded me that although it may not effect me personally it may make a difference to other players who may need all the race income and points they can get.
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Hi Alex! Sorry for you, bad luck, can happen to the best.
You got a call from some admin?? Probably the info you post here is FOBY... But it was a pleasure and I am delighted to had the opportunity to learn from them, by the detail that you put in every race strategy. It's of course just possible from someone with great experience.
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NO there was no comments from the Admin. Just one of the players contacted me offline asking that I do not post any information regarding strategies before the race because it can cause other managers to change to that strategy which can result in that player getting a worse result. I agree with that person and I do not normally post a person name that contacts me because I think they have taken the high road in not contacting the admins to complain but to me directly. IF they had posted their complaint in these forums there might have been a lot of arguments about what was right and wrong and we do not need that negativity in the forums. If anyone contacts me directly I keep their name out of the public forums.
As for what is or not FOBY, I think the only thing I really gave out was the TCD for that particular track for that particular race. That is a pretty small thing and a lot more information is given out in other places that are public. Most of you are just not aware of where that is. I think it is important to help people a bit rather than always locking them out of the information and to a degree that goes against the FOBY guides. It is a very fine line between what a person should or should not give out. To that end I would not give out a chart of all the tracks or all the formula's used in the game but giving a single TCD does not tell them how to generate the number or what the other tracks are like so there is not much information given away that way. Very competitive types tend to want nothing given out while people just here for the fun tend to want more given out. I have never seen any hard and fast rules from the admins on what is or is not allowed and I have seen a lot more given out then what I did in the posts above.
I just want to be careful that while I help people I do not give away information which might hurt others and that is why I agree that I should post a race strategy after the race and not before. I would like to see these forums more active and a bit of a pity that only the better managers as a whole reading these posts. I would like to see others put up their comments for discussions. My personal rule is that I do not have to beat every single manager out there. Only the ones in my race group and unfortunately I will usually only see you guys in this group and seldom again so any information I give out is seldom used against me again.
Maybe in the future I will write a post on how I figure out what strategy I am going to use, without giving specific details on the particular race and at least get people to think about what makes for a good or bad strategy. I can always refer back to previous races.
Is there any topic you guys would like to see me discuss a bit? or any term you keep hearing but do not know what it means?
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I would say GPRO and its users are more concerned about the fact 90% of the users know almost all of the things about this game already..TCD is something that's been know for ages and to my knowledge really hasn't changed that much..ever.
I was surprised at the detail you went into but hey...I don't think it "helped" people really. I have full charts of stuff and I still chose the wrong strategy sometimes....it's the way GPRO life is.
Saying 1 strategy is slower than another isn't bad..it can be as obvious as looking at past wear and current TCD and bam...you got the answer..
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Go Kieran Go. Nice to see you up there in the podium positions. Now James is another story. Enough of seeing him up there. Lets see some of the others have a turn at first place. :)
Just having fun with you.
Quote ( Christopher Davis @ March 26th 2019,03:01:44 ) I would say GPRO and its users are more concerned about the fact 90% of the users know almost all of the things about this game already..TCD is something that's been know for ages and to my knowledge really hasn't changed that much..ever.
I was surprised at the detail you went into but hey...I don't think it "helped" people really. I have full charts of stuff and I still chose the wrong strategy sometimes....it's the way GPRO life is.
Saying 1 strategy is slower than another isn't bad..it can be as obvious as looking at past wear and current TCD and bam...you got the answer..
I do find it somewhat sad that a high percent of the people out there have access to tools rather than creating them by themselves. Most people jump on a team and then get all the team tools and I think that has taken a lot out of the game to be honest. Gone are the days we knew nothing and it took a long time to figure these things out. I have always told people not to pass on tools but one friend gives it to 2 friends who give it to 4 friends ..until everyone has them. I remember when I was trying to figure out the conversion for Dry to Wet and Wet to DRY where I made a spreadsheet with 3500 example setups which I reduced to 2800 more legitimate records and then applied some statistics to them to figure out how settings changed by temperature. That was a lot of work.
I find strategies are heavily impacted by which position you will rank in the starting GRID. One of my beefs is that for Hard Overtaking (OT) tracks your qualifying position can often be the race for you and if you blow the quals you largely are done for in the race. The higher the racing league the more that applies. To that end I have two strategy tools I made. One is based on lost time due to pits, fuel loads, and perceived OT difficulty and risks. The other uses your expected (based on a practise lap) final grid position. Often if you can qualify in the top 5 positions a softer tire is the better choice but if you are qualifying further back there becomes too much risk that you will be blocked and harder tires make the better strategy. A god example of that would be Luis today. IF he had qualfied back another 5+ places his 2 stop strategy would not work near as well. Blocking can be brutal in this game and one reason for a little bit of aggression for your driver. I use very little in the AM league.
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The guys are making it a lot more enjoyable now!
Luis now has the best package in the group and Kieran is dead quick on his day. I'm happy trundling around on the podium now, my wear plan has enabled me to make a fair bit of money this season despite promo, so I can't complain!
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true the grid pos can be a big helper, as Luis has said he wants to jump the blocking,
in the last race (not tonight's) I blocked the pack from 2nd pos (lucky luis was just ahead) as I could squeeze a testing in but only with 0ctr and still had a 109% expected part (which smoked 5 laps or so to go), so although I blocked the field behind me for a while (22 laps) as I perceived with a 1 stop hard tyre, long pit time, I could still romp home a podium with the pace I showed/pha balnce in practice, but it let Luis charge ahead (he seems on that extra strop strat at mo) and I was baffled at so many similar strats until I read Alex's in depth go for a one stopper three days later lol.
Quote ( James Brown @ March 26th 2019,21:16:02 ) my wear plan has enabled me to make a fair bit of money this season despite promo, so I can't complain!
missing 2 races and having one taken on holiday means that I've spent a little more than I planned
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I have been so affected by blocking that I think twice in using one stop with hard overtaking. 2nd time I used one more stop and it did pay off again.
Its been a very fun season so far... Good pace today Kieran, hope to count on you too fighting for victories
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Quote ( Luis Santos @ March 26th 2019,22:09:54 ) I have been so affected by blocking that I think twice in using one stop with hard overtaking. 2nd time I used one more stop and it did pay off again.
Its been a very fun season so far... Good pace today Kieran, hope to count on you too fighting for victories
It can work to have more stops but you have to usually land in the top 5 on the grid and be genuinely fast or you get blocked behind someone and you cannot use your speed and then the second/third pit just becomes a noose around your neck. Normally going the less stops will hurt your chances at a high finish but acts more conservatively so no matter what happens with regards to blocking you can still have an okay race.
Sorry for doing as well as I did. I will try harder to lose. Pity Csaba took that extra pit (random/technical) or he would have ended around 4th today. I am slowly moving down in the promotion list. I hope I can drop out shortly but I have to stop races like today. I see I have the Favorite track this coming race. Tempting as it is, I will probably have to add in an extra stop to slow myself down. People must be struggling on keeping their car parts high. I have downgraded my car by close to 15 points in each P, H and A and I am still near the top of the pile.
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Okay, Here is my losing strategy. Remember if you follow this you probably will not do well.
Regular first stint but deep into the wobbles to lose time. Second stint with way too much fuel so I will be both slow and run all the way through my tires until they are at 0% and I lose more time in the wobbles. Then run a stint too short which forces another pit with 5 laps to go. The extra pit should kill me for around 48-49 seconds loss. I hope between running the tires too deep, lots of wobbles and the extra pit that I should be okay to not score points but I am willing to change if anyone has any other ideas of how I can land in the 10-15th spot but with no risk of points.
Go Csaba and Keiran go. I even want Luis and James to keep on taking the points away from me.
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Quote ( Alex Holland @ March 29th 2019,17:21:29 ) Okay, Here is my losing strategy. Remember if you follow this you probably will not do well.
Regular first stint but deep into the wobbles to lose time. Second stint with way too much fuel so I will be both slow and run all the way through my tires until they are at 0% and I lose more time in the wobbles. Then run a stint too short which forces another pit with 5 laps to go. The extra pit should kill me for around 48-49 seconds loss. I hope between running the tires too deep, lots of wobbles and the extra pit that I should be okay to not score points but I am willing to change if anyone has any other ideas of how I can land in the 10-15th spot but with no risk of points.
Go Csaba and Keiran go. I even want Luis and James to keep on taking the points away from me.
Truth is that with your car level and favourite track for your driver i think you will be in the points anyway with this strategy. we just have around 8-9 players that usually score points, and then comes a big gap for the others, so i understand all your efforts could not be enough.
And i hope Kieran really jumps in today, it would be a pity if he doesn't race
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Yes I am doing what I can to not get points and I keep adding an extra pit or like last time massive fuel loads to slow my speed down a few seconds. You are right that it seems like only 8-10 people are really trying for points. I expect a small run of people trying for late retention to make a run at some points but typically they will be in the 6-10th places and not touch the top. It is a pity that Kieran missed last race. We are starting to get closer to the end and he still has a lot of room to make up. If he starts to miss any more races I will have to concede defeat and force myself into the promotion zone. I would really like another 2 seasons in AM to build the bank account and sponsors.
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Even with me trying I still can't beat you LOL Time to look for a new driver I think. Younger that that..
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I am guessing that you are probably making one or two small mistakes that might be having a domino effect on your game and plans. Feel free to send me your driver and other package parts and I will comment on what you might be doing right or wrong. Putting the driver up here on the thread and then discussing it might be a bit too much but I can certainly comment on the side. Keep in mind there are mutiple ways to play this game and none are certainly better than others. Some just make it a bit more difficult like trying to take a single driver from Rookie all the way to Elite is terribly difficult so you do yourself a favor by maybe thinking of the best times to keep a driver for another season or dropping the driver for a new one.
Good luck today guys. I went with fuel loads that will run me to the end of my tires and make pits really long. last race I had a 30 or 35s pit because of that. I sure hope Kieran qualifies today. Always consider giving a team mate a holiday if you think there is any chance of missing the setups. They are easy to cancel if you do not use them.
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Disappointed that Kieran did not make it to quals again this week. I might have to give up on my plan to slide along as time is running out for him to pass me for points. I don't think Michael D or Alina really want to promote and all I am doing is losing out on a lot of race money and sponsor negot. as I keep throwing each race and still likely get points.
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Well last race I ran out of fuel 1 lap short..amateur move. These past races Im just not fast enough and can't pass people at the behining...something I need to look more into.
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Well I guess I have to figure out whether Kieran will try to race or not tomorrow. If he misses any more races I will probably start getting points again and promote to PRO and come back down the next season. I am effectively throwing the race again tomorrow but there is no use in doing this if it will not change the promotion outcome. Kieran only needs a couple of fast races to pass me but I don't know how likely he will lose sponsors due to missing races and once that money is gone he might run short on money to promote. Good luck to the guys still trying to retain for this season. I know it can get a bit desperate from this point out.
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I really hope Kieran gets back and does promote.
Fortunately for those trying to retain, Luis is now moti dropping and I will be moti dropping for the last 3 races.
It's been a great season but I think it'll slow down now upfront.
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I have to get a message to Kieran and ask what is happening. He must be losing MOT and sponsors by now and may not care what happens anymore. I was going to change drivers myself but now I might have to keep this one and score a few points in PRO before I dump him.
I hope no one picked their strategy based on my lap speed. I took XS tires in order to add an extra pit and it looks like Soft for the front runners and Med for further back are better strategies than what I took. Just trying to throw the races again. I also over fueled on the last 2 stints for slower lap speeds. IF Kieran is not going to race I might have to just go for it and no longer holding back. Does not seem anyone else wants to take this easy opportunity to promote. Lots of people could get in the hunt if they just went for it. Particulary with everyone trying to drop MOT towards the end of the season. Don't forget you will lose -18 MOT, -7 Stam, -5 Agg over the season break. You may increase or decrease your CONC over the season break depending on your drivers age. Young guys will increase their CONC but old guys will lose CONC. If you need me to calculate where you need to be to get under the OPA cap, let me know and I will figure it out for you.
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Looks like Kieran isn't going to be racing, which is a massive shame. I hope to see him back soon. This does mean you'll need to promo Alex, which must upset your plan quite a lot!
Cheers Alex, but i've got my drivers OA all under control. This young buck project driver is on his way to Elite. I've got 2 FT early on in pro so they're going to be my best chances of scoring my retention points. Luckily i've got myself in a position now that i've secured 1st (assuming Luis doesnt stop moti dropping ;) ) so i can moti drop now rather than in pro. That way i can resign just before my first FT for the moti boost.
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Yes I was hoping Kieran would answer one of my messages. I have sent two asking his plans going forward. With no answers though I presume, what I call real life issues, has gotten in the way of playing the game.
I always find it strange that people miss races. I know on any team that I have been on that we have always had a couple of people we trust on our team (or why be on a team) that we could throw a quick holiday to. Whenever I think there is even a small chance that I will miss the race, I send out 3-4 holidays with the instructions for no one to use them until we are down to the last hour or two before the race. Then if there is still no sign of me, whomever is available can take on that holiday and do my setups. This is very rare (less than once in 10 seasons) but surely he could take the 10 minutes to sign on, send out a few holidays and a team message, saying HELP!. Otherwise his whole package is getting killed while the sponsors will not be happy with him missing the races and likely start to walk out on him.
Teams are quite important and people on teams should talk to bring everyone together and help each other with discussion, research and holidays when real life issues get in the way of playing the game. It is not really good for anyone when he misses so many races. If people on your team are not team players and people you can trust or rely on, you should really put pressure on the bad people to leave and look for people who will be a team player before an individual. Get a good team and you can go far.
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Well it looks like I have made most of my final purchases of car parts so now I can see how much money I can raise from here on out. Ideally I need a new driver but I don't know if Kieran is going to race hard or not. He has not signed in for 10 days now so I suspect he may be dropping out of the game. Pity he cannot rely on his team to help him.
So who is still fighting for retention. I know a few might want to drop to Rookie for a rebuild but I am sure there are still a handful who want to make a late push. The top 3 promoters are well on their way to PRO which should be interesting for them. Good luck up there guys. I think PRO is the best racing league to be in. Still enough racing to be fun and the addition of Technical Directors and more tire choices.
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I would agree by far, Pro is much more fun than down here by far!
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Well I am throwing one more race in th3 hopes that Kieran returns. Starting with dry tires which I think is a mistake. Then a shirt pit followed by a assive fuel load which should throw me back in the pack for some blocking and then slow lap speeds with an over fuel2d stint.
Good luck to th3 guys trying to retain
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Well...had a top 10 chance now it's raining and I'm out on drys :)))
Oh what love.
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