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Topic: 99% wear and risks |
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I'm sure we have all had 99% wear on one part or another at some point and got round a race without smoking but my question is does the likelihood of your car smoking increase with greater clear track risks you use when parts are already at 99%? Logic says it will but logic also says that you will smoke when starting with 99% but this isn't always the case.
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#2 posted Jul 18th 2014, 20:12:37
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Quote ( Kevin Fitzgerald @ July 18th 2014,20:09:25 ) my question is does the likelihood of your car smoking increase with great clear track risks when parts are already at 99%?
Yes, you will start smoking earlier, and the options of not finishing the race increase too ;)
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#3 posted Jul 18th 2014, 20:31:59
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?????? I started smoking very early on today with minimal risks are you therefore saying if I used maximum risks I would have smoked even earlier?
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#4 posted Jul 18th 2014, 20:35:43
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Quote ( Kevin Fitzgerald @ July 18th 2014,20:31:59 ) ?????? I started smoking very early on today with minimal risks are you therefore saying if I used maximum risks I would have smoked even earlier?
When a part is at 99% at the beggining it can somoke soon or not, thats pure luck for what I´ve seen when doing it, but when using high risks it "usually" start smoking eralier than when using low risks, and also posibilities of not finishing increases.
I´ve seen managers when start with parts at 99% using XS and low fuel in order to fight for the fast lap and get the extra million as they have no options for the race. With a part at 99% you have a few laps until it start smoking, it can be 2 or 3 laps or 7/8 laps, thats luck for what I´ve seen ;)
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#5 posted Jul 18th 2014, 20:41:02
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As you state once a part is at 99% it's pure luck and randomness as to when you start smoking therefore how can you be certain that higher risks will cause you to start smoking earlier when all your gauging it against is luck and randomness?
One thing I certainly have found is your more likely to start smoking after a pit stop.
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#6 posted Jul 18th 2014, 22:29:16
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really Kevin?you ask this yet you have 300 plus races under your belt..I would have thought you would have found the answer to this long ago
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#7 posted Jul 18th 2014, 22:34:33
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of course higher risks has a higher chance of smoking earlier, but as Fran said its somewhat luck/random as ive seen a team mate race on 100 risks with 6 parts at 99% and finish the race with no smoke, where ive also seen 0 risks and 1 part 99% smoke very early.
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#8 posted Jul 18th 2014, 22:47:40
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Well Shane in my 300 races I can't say I have often raced too many times with parts starting on 99% and when I have I have found that when you start to smoke is really quite random so therefore with parts already at 99% and randomness thrown into the equation I was wondering how much of a difference risks would make on parts that are already at 99%. As you seem to have extensive knowledge and data on this maybe you could share/send me your data instead of coming up with a comment that was no help whatsoever?
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#9 posted Jul 18th 2014, 23:07:37
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I dunno about this game... cause this game slaps Conventional wisdom and real life racing in the face.... but in real racing Pitstops are when the Car is usually under the Greatest Stress....
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#10 posted Jul 19th 2014, 00:12:49
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My engine went to 100% today. It's been at 99% for ages now, so why did it take a few races just to go up 1%? Seems bizarre to me.
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#11 posted Jul 19th 2014, 00:20:33
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Quote ( Steven Fleeter @ July 19th 2014,00:12:49 ) My engine went to 100% today. It's been at 99% for ages now, so why did it take a few races just to go up 1%? Seems bizarre to me.
Because your engine seems to take a few races to be totally destroyed...I never understood it either
;)
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#12 posted Jul 19th 2014, 00:26:16
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mine went straight to 100% with only a couple of smoked laps at Rafaela :)
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#13 posted Jul 19th 2014, 00:38:55
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Ask Shane, he knows the answer, although I'm still waiting for his data.
I just wondered if smoking till the end of the season am I more likely to make more money running minimal risks and hoping to make 90% distance or run high risks and hope that I may actually get a decent race position? Again how much of a difference does risks make when parts are already at 99% wear or does it become random?
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Quote ( Steven Fleeter @ July 19th 2014,00:12:49 ) My engine went to 100% today. It's been at 99% for ages now, so why did it take a few races just to go up 1%? Seems bizarre to me. Quote ( Stuart Foster @ July 19th 2014,00:26:16 ) mine went straight to 100% with only a couple of smoked laps at Rafaela :)
I´ve done some races a couple times with 4 or more parts at 99% and never reached 100%, change those crap drivers guys ;P
Quote ( Kevin Fitzgerald @ July 19th 2014,00:38:55 ) I just wondered if smoking till the end of the season am I more likely to make more money running minimal risks and hoping to make 90% distance or run high risks and hope that I may actually get a decent race position? Again how much of a difference does risks make when parts are already at 99% wear or does it become random?
With parts at 99% at the start the usual is to do one or two races and finish smoking. All the others from there in advance you will be out and wont do the 90% ;)
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#15 posted Jul 19th 2014, 01:06:17
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Quote ( Fran Betancort @ July 19th 2014,00:39:24 ) change those crap drivers guys ;P
No way, this guy is going to at least win a master group :)
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#16 posted Jul 19th 2014, 01:11:52 (last edited Jul 19th 2014, 01:12:04 by Josh Clark)
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Quote ( Stuart Foster @ July 19th 2014,01:06:17 ) No way, this guy is going to at least win a master group :)
Not when he has a contract with you he won't. ;)
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#17 posted Jul 19th 2014, 01:13:20
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Quote ( ) Quote ( Fran Betancort @ July 19th 2014,00:39:24 )
change those crap parts guys ;P
Fixed
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Quote ( Josh Clark @ July 19th 2014,01:11:52 ) Not when he has a contract with you he won't. ;)
I never said I would be the one that achieves it :)
Quote ( Jes Roth @ July 19th 2014,01:13:20 ) Fixed
No...you mean fix those zero risks AND crap parts AND crap driver stats :)
FTR, there is not one part of my "package" at this moment that is of any use to anything other than an Andrea Moda F1 car.
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#19 posted Jul 19th 2014, 01:45:13
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Quote ( Kevin Fitzgerald @ July 18th 2014,20:09:25 ) I'm sure we have all had 99% wear on one part or another at some point and got round a race without smoking
Really? I want to know who these lucky bastards are! ;)
I had a technical problem pit for my brakes today and the wear after the race was 46%! Yet 4 of my other parts with 90% + after the race were able to make the distance fine. I think someone stole the logic from this game. :)
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#20 posted Jul 19th 2014, 01:47:06
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Quote ( Stuart Foster @ July 19th 2014,01:14:11 ) there is not one part of my "package" at this moment that is of any use to anything
Now now, Stuart; I'm sure it's just a question of finding the right woman/man/cephalopod.
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#21 posted Jul 19th 2014, 01:50:47
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Quote ( Sam Tipple @ July 19th 2014,01:45:13 ) Quote ( Kevin Fitzgerald @ July 18th 2014,20:09:25 )
I'm sure we have all had 99% wear on one part or another at some point and got round a race without smoking
Really? I want to know who these lucky bastards are! ;)
Bonjour :)
...well maybe not got round without smoking, but certainly got around on 99% worn parts to 90% distance.
/gb/RaceSummary.asp?group=Pro+-+15&Season=42&Race=12
I'm holidaying the guy who came P37 that race and he almost made 90% with 9 99% worn parts. :)
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#22 posted Jul 19th 2014, 01:55:21
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Quote ( Josh Clark @ July 19th 2014,01:50:47 ) Bonjour :)...well maybe not got round without smoking, but certainly got around on 99% worn parts to 90% distance./gb/RaceSummary.asp?group=Pro+-+15&Season=42&Race=12I'm holidaying the guy who came P37 that race and he almost made 90% with 9 99% worn parts. :)
I envy you. :)
I must be getting sold second hand parts instead of the new ones I've been paying for lol
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Quote ( Kevin Fitzgerald @ July 19th 2014,00:38:55 ) Ask Shane, he knows the answer, although I'm still waiting for his data.
I just wondered if smoking till the end of the season am I more likely to make more money running minimal risks and hoping to make 90% distance or run high risks and hope that I may actually get a decent race position? Again how much of a difference does risks make when parts are already at 99% wear or does it become random?
I obviously will not send you my data and meant no disrespect however I must say I was shocked to see a question like this coming from someone in pro to be honest..next time your parts are 99% run maximum risks and see just how far you can go ;)
also I would say particular tracks and car/parts levels may have an impact on this as well as maybe weather,temps and driver level/stats.
I could be very wrong but thats what in my mind may or may not have to do with situations like this..and just for the record I have entered many races with parts at 99% due to economic reasons and am sure I will do so many times in the future..most likely again this season before its over
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#24 posted Jul 19th 2014, 03:25:31
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I smoked most of last season. Although I haven't studied what part risks play in the likelihood of smoking what I can say is that for the more consecutive races in a row of smoking, it seems to be more likely that you will smoke earlier and not make 90% race distance.
This could however be down to the fact that the more races I was smoking, the more parts started on 99% wear, therefore increasing the overall chance of one of those parts failing.
On average if I smoke consecutive races I only budget for one of them to reach the 90% race distance, and this seems to be the case from what I've experienced
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#25 posted Jul 19th 2014, 03:39:39
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Quote ( Alex Benjamin @ July 19th 2014,03:25:31 ) more consecutive races in a row of smoking, it seems to be more likely that you will smoke earlier and not make 90% race distance.
This could however be down to the fact that the more races I was smoking, the more parts started on 99% wear, therefore increasing the overall chance of one of those parts failing.
I too believe this is true from my past experiences
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#26 posted Jul 19th 2014, 05:48:03
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#27 posted Jul 19th 2014, 10:00:35
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Getting back to post #3, last race I started with parts on 99% and raced with minimal risks and started smoking very early, I don't necessarily believe that if I had run with max risks that I would have smoked even earlier.
When looking to smoke out the rest on the season I'm trying to establish what has a better chance of more money? Running low risks, crawling round hoping to have enough speed and the car to last long enough to make 90% distance or to go max and hope for more money through better race position. All comes back to how random does smoking become when parts are at 99%
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#28 posted Jul 19th 2014, 10:14:54
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When smoking so many consecutive races, it probably doesn't matter whether you run 0 or 100 risks as you'll most likely drop out every race anyway especially with more and more parts reaching 99%.
But generally speaking, 0 risks gives you a better chance to finish within the 90% and thus get more money.
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#29 posted Jul 19th 2014, 10:27:34
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Quote ( Fran Betancort @ July 19th 2014,00:39:24 ) With parts at 99% at the start the usual is to do one or two races and finish smoking. All the others from there in advance you will be out and wont do the 90% ;)
I have never pushed parts overly hard, but you seem to have said if parts are at 99% I could get 2 races out of them and still achieve 90% distance?
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#30 posted Jul 19th 2014, 10:29:42
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Quote ( Nigel Hawken @ July 19th 2014,10:27:34 ) I have never pushed parts overly hard, but you seem to have said if parts are at 99% I could get 2 races out of them and still achieve 90% distance?
I wouldn't take such "advice" for granted. I often had races where I started without a single part at 99% but maybe about 95% and couldn't finish a single race within the 90% ...
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