Page [1
Author Topic: Rain? No Rain? 11 replies
Jimmy Reed
(Group Rookie - 149)


Posts: 2
  Country:
United States 
Certified: 
Like this post (0)   Dislike this post (0)
Old post #1 posted Jan 15th 2022, 03:55:12 Quote 
What is the largest number of weather changes from wet to dry and back again that anyone has seen in a race? Planning pit stops for the upcoming race is a nightmare.
Stuart Foster
(Group Rookie - 34)



Posts: 12050
  Country:
England 
Certified: 
Like this post (2)   Dislike this post (0)
Old post #2 posted Jan 15th 2022, 04:06:49 (last edited Jan 15th 2022, 04:13:32 by Stuart Foster) Quote 
Just do what I do in these races, use the same amount of fuel you start the race with. Saves the hassle of second guessing. Just be sure your fuel is good for both rain and dry scenarios so that the tyres don't burn all the way to the carcasses whatever the weather throws up. I.e, not 3 digits worth of litres if planning to run a softer tyre. There's little point planning a meticulous pit stop strategy. Everyone is in the lap of the gods, just a case of preparing yourself for the best worst case scenario.

oh and by the way, if it is raining in Q2 then it WILL be raining at the start of he race - so you don't need to second guess whether lap 1 is rain or not - it most certainly will be. That at least ensures the opening lap(s) are not a guessing game of what tyre to start on - unless of course you want to buy a lottery ticket and start on dry tyres in the hope it dry's up very quickly and thus avoiding a tyre change from wet to dry tyres. That is a considered lottery though unless the rain probability is much lower than this.

Best of luck :)
Will Kanewske
(Group Rookie - 9)


Posts: 2
  Country:
United States 
Certified: 
Like this post (0)   Dislike this post (0)
Old post #3 posted Jan 15th 2022, 04:11:29 Quote 
I'm scared haha. This seems like it could be a nightmare...
Stuart Foster
(Group Rookie - 34)



Posts: 12050
  Country:
England 
Certified: 
Like this post (0)   Dislike this post (0)
Old post #4 posted Jan 15th 2022, 04:19:22 Quote 
I think the most tyre changes from the a race I ever experienced with stop and start weather was between 4 and 6. A typical stop/start weather race would do so once or twice, but when the probability is in this range it could conceivably stop/start 3 times. More than that is definitely not normal. But that's not to say it can't happen. Just be sure to start the race on the tyre you want and let it roll. Like I said before though, it will be raining on lap 1 so its a good idea to start on wets in this kind of scenario - but you don't have to if you want to gamble on an early rain stoppage and avoid a potential early stop.
Eric Ingraham
(Group Amateur - 58)



Posts: 26
  Country:
United States 
Certified: 
Like this post (0)   Dislike this post (0)
Old post #5 posted Jan 15th 2022, 04:32:54 Quote 
If your dry stints are long enough that you think you will not get stuck pitting an extra time in unchanged conditions (i.e. if it goes 30 consecutive dry laps and you are set up to do a minimum of, say 32+, rather than doing 18 lap stints) then you can just plan to be alternating back and forth - wet-dry-wet-dry-wet and fuel of say 40-50-40-50-40, for example.
Stuart Foster
(Group Rookie - 34)



Posts: 12050
  Country:
England 
Certified: 
Like this post (3)   Dislike this post (0)
Old post #6 posted Jan 15th 2022, 04:39:59 (last edited Jan 15th 2022, 04:40:25 by Stuart Foster) Quote 
Yeah, cos it will obviously stop and start at the exact same number of lap intervals. This is why meticulous planning for what we call 'lottery' races is a bad idea. And bad advice, imo.
Ricardo Antunes
(Group Amateur - 28)



Posts: 1742
  Country:
Portugal 
Certified: 
Like this post (1)   Dislike this post (0)
Old post #7 posted Jan 15th 2022, 11:05:59 Quote 
Quote ( Will Kanewske @ January 15th 2022,04:11:29 )

I'm scared haha. This seems like it could be a nightmare...


If you are scared then imagine the Elites going for a title this season!

They must be crying in their beds right now!
Michael Armbruster
(Group Amateur - 12)



Posts: 1665
  Country:
Germany 
Certified: 
Like this post (1)   Dislike this post (0)
Old post #8 posted Jan 15th 2022, 13:21:57 (last edited Jan 15th 2022, 13:22:16 by Michael Armbruster) Quote 
Quote ( Jimmy Reed @ January 15th 2022,03:55:12 )

What is the largest number of weather changes from wet to dry and back again that anyone has seen in a race? Planning pit stops for the upcoming race is a nightmare.


Three wet and three dry stints in season 8 in Interlagos. So five weather changes. Maybe there were more in the seasons before.


Zé Pedro Paula
(Group Amateur - 16)



Posts: 594
  Country:
Mozambique 
Certified: 
Like this post (2)   Dislike this post (1)
Old post #9 posted Jan 15th 2022, 21:22:23 (last edited Jan 15th 2022, 21:24:07 by Zé Pedro Paula) Quote 
Quote ( Will Kanewske @ January 15th 2022,04:11:29 )

This seems like it could be a nightmare...


A very real one.


Quote ( Will Kanewske @ January 15th 2022,04:11:29 )

I'm scared


Be scared.


Quote ( Will Kanewske @ January 15th 2022,11:05:59 )

haha


I see you find horror movies funny.
William Locke
(Group Rookie - 17)



Posts: 26
  Country:
United States 
Certified: 
Like this post (0)   Dislike this post (0)
Old post #10 posted Jan 16th 2022, 01:11:49 Quote 
Set the fuel for the max distance your dry tires can go and you should never have to worry about wearing out your tires. It might not be the best strategy overall, but its safe.
Ilia Lilov
(Group Pro - 2)



Posts: 165
  Country:
Bulgaria 
Certified: 
Like this post (10)   Dislike this post (0)
Old post #11 posted Jan 16th 2022, 01:34:22 Quote 
Quote ( Stuart Foster @ January 15th 2022,04:06:49 )

There's little point planning a meticulous pit stop strategy. Everyone is in the lap of the gods, just a case of preparing yourself for the best worst case scenario.




I strongly disagree with that part. You can still plan and it is VERY much worth it. I would say write down your options, chose your best strategy for 0, 1,2,3 weather changes... see if there is some overlap in the most likely scenarios (1 or 2 changes). Don't worry to put some extra fuel somewhere to cover some more extra scenarios.

If you are miles ahead of everyone sure, pick a reasonable dry tire, put as much dry fuel it will run and forget about it, but there is more to be gained with planning, especially if you are in the middle pack and you are pushing for some advantage. If you go for the super safe option you will still be in the middle pack, if you explore your options you can find a strategy that works better for your situation and can punish people who went with the lazy approach. Sure the weather will need to cooperate but in order to win the lotto you need to buy a ticket.
Twig Fahaji
(Group Elite)



Posts: 412
  Country:
England 
Certified: 
Like this post (7)   Dislike this post (0)
Old post #12 posted Jan 17th 2022, 17:09:29 Quote 
Quote ( Ricardo Antunes @ January 15th 2022,11:05:59 )

Quote ( Will Kanewske @ January 15th 2022,04:11:29 )

I'm scared haha. This seems like it could be a nightmare...


If you are scared then imagine the Elites going for a title this season!

They must be crying in their beds right now!


I cry in my bed for every race anyway, regardless of the weather
Page [1

Reply to this topic