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Topik: The GPRO weather thread |
14582 balasan
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I always roll my dice to determine my race strategy according to weather forecast.
I get it right many times, roughly 55%-65%
I only got right the actual lap that rain started/stopped once!
I should curse my dice, and all the scripts they have inside...
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Some people do not understand that the weather forecast is divided into 4 parts. Each one with 30 minutes. In each of them, a forecast.
In the first part, it had a 96-99% chance of still raining (1-3% chance of stopping). And stopped. Unlikely? Yes, but it stopped, as it had never stopped raining with such a high probability. That would be acceptable.
In the second part, it had a 92-96% chance of starting to rain. And it did not rain. Hard to happen and it happened. I do not remember a 90-95% situation that took more than 9 laps to rain.
2 parts of the race, happening the improbable. It would be unbelievable, but the worst, is that in the 3rd part, happened again the improbable. 3 times in a row, happening the unlikely, the unpredictable.
The third part, with 84-89% chance of starting to rain.
Everyone could accept 1 part of the race, with a surprise weather, but 3 "special" sections in the same race, it's very ridiculous.
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If a RNG picking numbers between 1-100 came up with 55, 54, 55 in order, nobody would bat an eye.
But if it comes up with 2, 1, 2, everyone loses their minds...
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Had planned a damage limitation race for me after expecting a full wet race,...
But it became damage limitation race for others after that early weather change.. :D
It was a great way to end 2017..........
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I'm pretty sure it has nothing to do with a random number generator. The question mark besides the weather forecasts indicates that the percentages are not necessarily accurate, meaning the game is not calculated using the same numbers as are found in the forecast.
Now as someone new to the game who had read this previously, I have been weary of the accuracy of the forecasts. I can understand that some people who have done hundreds of races and correlated the data may not have been as weary, but to me it goes to show that even if something is near certain, it can still pay to select the proper dry tyres and to not ignore the fuel strategy for additional stops.
Sure we didn't know what was going to happen, but when GPRO visits a new track for the first time, does anyone know precisely what is going to happen? No, because it is uncertain. Yet I very much doubt that managers threaten to quit every time there is a new track.
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Quote ( Dominiek Van West @ December 30th 2017,02:05:00 ) It's not the first time people complain about the weather forecast.
Maybe you need to rethink how you present the weather system to your users. On the weather forecast it says 'Rain probability'.
People like to complain, especially when they're disappointed. Not only in GPRO, so why should GPRO be different.
People also have very little intuitive sense of what's the difference between the "improbable" and "impossible" in the world of probability. Why should it be different in GPRO?
Weather forecasts in the countries I live/lived in have hardly had anywhere close to rain prediction accuracy in GPRO, yet in all these countries prediction of rain in the media has been called "rain probability". I'd be surprised if in any of the countries you lived in it's any different.
edit: Btw, I'm really disappointed with my own result of yesterday's race. Yes, in my mind I blame the weather. But the truth is, prediction was the same for everyone. It's just that not everyone was equally well prepared for the 2%. Including myself.
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Quote ( Rogerio Mandler @ December 30th 2017,03:49:07 ) Some people do not understand that the weather forecast is divided into 4 parts. Each one with 30 minutes. In each of them, a forecast.
I've never really questioned the weather forecast and this part of it before as I sort of learned to accept the randomness quite early on. However now I do question what exactly this statement means.
As we know, rain can stop, start, and stop again in the same half hour. So the equation isn't simply "weather has an X% chance to change in this half hour". Is it not then "weather has an X% every lap to change in this half hour"?
And if that's true, is it then true that in 58 chances (lap 14 - lap 72) with an average of around a 94.5% chance (considering the race length and the quarterly percentages) in each of the 58 incidences of the weather changing, the weather did not change? Is the probability that the weather does not change in any given lap 5.5%?
So does that mean that in 58 laps, the probability of the weather remaining dry is 0.05^58 = 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000035%?
If so that's pretty awesome :)
If not I probably shouldn't have dropped A level maths.
E: I guess it doesn't really look like a piss take so I'll ask my question without sarcasm: what exactly are the rain probabilities indicating? Because it's obviously not the chance of the weather changing each lap, and it's obviously not the chance that the weather changes once in each half hour.
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Well, the probability of you being born is estimated to be one in 400 trillion. Yet we are all here playing gpro. How can you, not believe in miracles?
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No, Vlad does not sit and decide NOW is the time for it to rain or to stop raining.
48 seasons I've never seen that type of weather in a race. It was probably 20 seasons before a weather change in the final 4 - 10 laps that caught me out.
There is no guarantee of anything in a weather forecast, not in real life nor in Gpro.
As for those, with the "I quit!" "I'm not supporting anymore" attitude I suggest you stop and think of the logic in what you are saying.
You all, sound like a child who is taking his toys and leaving the playground. if you leave because of this chit weather forecast... you are not meant to succeed at the game. This is a minor inconvenience for everybody. If this, R9 of the season, was that crucial or the race that would have given you retention, you need to rethink your planning.
Edit: I may be harsh about this but it is just silly what people are saying
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I pitted 6 times and lost a sponsor because of this. But I feel it is fun to get caught on this once in a while, just not too frequent please :)
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Quote ( Rogerio Mandler @ December 30th 2017,03:49:07 ) Everyone could accept 1 part of the race, with a surprise weather, but 3 "special" sections in the same race, it's very ridiculous.
Which only happens if the events are statistically independent. If, for example, you have 10% odds of being rich between 0-10 years old, then 10% between 11-20 years old and so on, but it happened you are rich in the first bracket, automatically odds of being rich in the second one are higher. That doesn't mean the odds are skewed (it only means it sucks to be poor), because if, instead, you were poor between 0-10 years old, odds of being poor in the second bracket are automatically higher than 90% and the total odds per bracket remain the same.
A simple example with coins. After 2 throws you have 25% odds of 2 tails, 25% odds of 2 heads, 50% odds of one of each. However, if after the first throw it landed tails, odds of 2 heads are automatically zero without that meaning, at all, the prior odds were wrong.
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I really enjoyed yesterday's weather. I've been playing Gpro for nine years and I think it's the first time this happens with high percentages in the weather forecast, so I am very happy to see that YES, the 1% probability is not a myth.
This made a fun race, less predictable, and the best of the best of course is to read all the funny comments here, the human behaviour is sometimes so great !
People, it's just a game, and moreover the weather was exactly the same for every players in every group, so deal with it and stop crying :-)
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Quote ( Roy Mitchell @ December 30th 2017,06:07:12 )
As for those, with the "I quit!" "I'm not supporting anymore" attitude I suggest you stop and think of the logic in what you are saying.
You all, sound like a child who is taking his toys and leaving the playground. if you leave because of this chit weather forecast... you are not meant to succeed at the game. This is a minor inconvenience for everybody. If this, R9 of the season, was that crucial or the race that would have given you retention, you need to rethink your planning.
Edit: I may be harsh about this but it is just silly what people are saying
Roy, maybe they are kids :D
Quote ( Lyee Chong @ December 30th 2017,06:20:04 ) I pitted 6 times and lost a sponsor because of this. But I feel it is fun to get caught on this once in a while, just not too frequent please :)
The only concerne for me are the sponsors in this type of races. It's way too painful to sign one, and then lose it like this is not really the best thing thou.
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I too had a sponsor on 92% - until after last night when I got dumped!
Comparing at the temp/humidity in the Practice, Q1, Q2 and Race start (where it rained all the way) it is interesting to note that the race temp/hum remained the same throughout the race which makes it even more difficult to predict how to react any differently in the race than in the pre race.
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Quote ( Roy Mitchell @ December 30th 2017,06:07:12 ) No, Vlad does not sit and decide NOW is the time for it to rain or to stop raining.
48 seasons I've never seen that type of weather in a race. It was probably 20 seasons before a weather change in the final 4 - 10 laps that caught me out.
There is no guarantee of anything in a weather forecast, not in real life nor in Gpro.
As for those, with the "I quit!" "I'm not supporting anymore" attitude I suggest you stop and think of the logic in what you are saying.
You all, sound like a child who is taking his toys and leaving the playground. if you leave because of this chit weather forecast... you are not meant to succeed at the game. This is a minor inconvenience for everybody. If this, R9 of the season, was that crucial or the race that would have given you retention, you need to rethink your planning.
Edit: I may be harsh about this but it is just silly what people are saying
I agree 100% with Roy in this entry.
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Quote ( Rogerio Mandler @ December 30th 2017,03:49:07 ) Some people do not understand that the weather forecast is divided into 4 parts. Each one with 30 minutes. In each of them, a forecast.
In the first part, it had a 96-99% chance of still raining (1-3% chance of stopping). And stopped. Unlikely? Yes, but it stopped, as it had never stopped raining with such a high probability. That would be acceptable.
In the second part, it had a 92-96% chance of starting to rain. And it did not rain. Hard to happen and it happened. I do not remember a 90-95% situation that took more than 9 laps to rain.
2 parts of the race, happening the improbable. It would be unbelievable, but the worst, is that in the 3rd part, happened again the improbable. 3 times in a row, happening the unlikely, the unpredictable.
The third part, with 84-89% chance of starting to rain.
Everyone could accept 1 part of the race, with a surprise weather, but 3 "special" sections in the same race, it's very ridiculous.
As you recently told me in "start crash thread"... If you can't accept that luck is also a factor in Gpro, maybe you shouldn't play Gpro. ;D
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Quote ( Derek Rainey @ December 30th 2017,09:24:15 ) I too had a sponsor on 92% - until after last night when I got dumped!
Are you sure that was a direct result of the race?
I don't get all the whinging about the weather , yes it was unexpected it probably will never happen again due to the unlikeliness of it.
It probably lost me a couple of places and with it a couple of extra points which the way my season is going could be the difference between retaining and relegating but we move on :)
No point in throwing toys out the pram :)
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Apologies chaps, i dozed off in the middle of this shitstorm (cloudy with a 10% chance of giant turds flying)
What did i miss?
Has the track dried?
And what about everyone's tears?
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Well it seems to have quitened down so either they have all rage quit or they have come to terms with it just being a game :-)
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Quote ( Josh Clark @ December 30th 2017,05:33:38 ) So does that mean that in 58 laps, the probability of the weather remaining dry is 0.05^58 = 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000035%?
I think the thing everyone can ascertain from this race is that there is (almost) certainly not a lap by lap chance of rain with the probabilities judging by how the race panned out.
It could just be that the game makes a singular roll of the dice for each period, or maybe even different intervals than that...maybe every 10 minutes....we can't know exactly...but for sure it isn't every lap...otherwise it really would be "awesome" as Josh puts it :)
Quote ( Miel Soeterbroek @ December 30th 2017,10:25:42 ) What did i miss?
Has the track dried?
You missed a bolt of lightning hitting the track which meant I came second in a Master race (OUR race)...and for some reason everyone is upset about it :)
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if you really count it carefully, he missed two "0" there :)
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Quote ( Derek Rainey @ December 30th 2017,09:24:15 ) I too had a sponsor on 92% - until after last night when I got dumped!
Apologies - I note that my sponsor DID in fact reach 100% and signed up with me
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Again a lottery race any idea?😀😀😀
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Quote ( Stuart Foster @ December 30th 2017,10:33:23 ) You missed a bolt of lightning hitting the track which meant I came second in a Master race (OUR race)...and for some reason everyone is upset about it :)
Is your TD called Emmett Brown?
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hmm...well, I'd actually say he's more like Emmet Hawksworth if anything :)
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Quote ( Roy Mitchell @ December 30th 2017,06:07:12 ) As for those, with the "I quit!" "I'm not supporting anymore" attitude I suggest you stop and think of the logic in what you are saying.
Lets talk about logic for these people.
I bet,they never get out if home as there is a possibility for them to be hitten by a thunder or by a meteor,right?
Oh,wait. I forgot...
When they are at home,there is also the possibility of an earthquake that will demolish it. Or some airplanes crashing there....
OMG. I can't imagine how it is to live knowing that no matter what you do,you can't escape form such tragedies.
But sure I understand why they will quit GPRO.
Because they can.
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It's the Hollydays men wtf 😲😲
And don't scream like a little girl i will quit but just do it pffffff
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Quote ( Derek Rainey @ December 30th 2017,09:24:15 ) I too had a sponsor on 92% - until after last night when I got dumped! Quote ( Derek Rainey @ December 30th 2017,10:36:53 ) Apologies - I note that my sponsor DID in fact reach 100% and signed up with me
Lol :D
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